Last year it was predicted Louisiana would see a job growth of 40,000, the highest increase in 25 years. But ULL Acadiana Business Economist Gary Wagner said that the forecast has since been revised and the state only gained close to 10,000 jobs.
“Most of the time the revisions don’t make that large of a change, in this case, they did. But to put a positive spin on it, the 40,000-job number was the best in 25 years. The 10,000 number is much closer to our average,” said Wagner.
So, while the gains were only a fourth of what was predicted, Wagner said Louisiana had an average year for job growth, which is still better than job losses.
As to why the numbers were so far off, Wagner said the figures are derived from 160,000 businesses nationwide. When the more accurate data is gathered nine to 12 months later, Wagner said the actual numbers are from Louisiana businesses.
He said it’s a good lesson not to put too much stock into job forecasts.
“For example, if you see the July or June numbers. Those numbers are from a survey based on national data, and then a year later we know exactly what’s happening in Louisiana and we have exact numbers for Louisiana,” said Wagner.
Wagner said seeing as Louisiana only experienced a fourth of the predicted job gain, it’s not necessarily a poor reflection of the state’s overall economy.
“The job gains we saw are closer to our historical norms, it just turns out what we thought was going to be a fantastic year turned out to be a more or less average year,” said Wagner.
