Voters in New Orleans, except those who cast early ballots, go to the polls tomorrow to choose their next mayor. Based on opinion polls, there is no doubt that Helena Moreno will come out on top by a wide margin. The question is – will she get the 50% plus one share of the vote to win outright and avoid a runoff? John Couvillon, the founder of JMC Analytics and Polling, says this is essentially Moreno’s race to lose.
“She’s almost the next best thing to be in incumbent, because she first was a news anchor, then she represented the French Quarter and the CBD in the state house, and then she had an at-large City Council position,” Couvillon said.
Couvillon says the other main candidates in the race – Royce Duplessis and Oliver Thomas – have not been able to make any headway during the campaign.
“Both of them are engaged, in my opinion, in a zero-sum game against each other. Whereas, she has thus far been able to build a multi-racial coalition, which is what’s necessary if you want to be able to win in New Orleans nowadays,” Couvillon explained.
Couvillon says one candidate who does not stand a chance to win could end up deciding whether the race advances to a runoff on November 15th.
“Even though New Orleans is a heavily Democratic city, you do have a Republican in the race. His name is Frank Janusa. And that Republican can conceivably pull 3-5% of the votes,” Couvillon noted.
All candidates are vying to succeed the term limited – and federally indicted – LaToya Cantrell.
