We have our first poll in the U.S. Senate general election matchup between Republican Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis, and the numbers may surprise you. The poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows Letlow leading Davis by just four points, 41 to 37%, with 22% undecided. LSU political science professor Robert Hogan says it’s important to note that this is just one poll, and there’s no other polling data to compare it to.
“It certainly should give hope to Democrats who are hoping to win this seat. I think it would still be a major hurdle for the Democrats given, simply, the fact that Republicans tend to dominate in this state,” Hogan said.
One finding of the poll of 518 registered voters – with Republicans outnumbering Democrats by 14 percentage points – is that more than half had neither a favorable nor an unfavorable opinion of Davis, compared to just over one-fourth for Letlow. Hogan says it underscores the gap in name recognition between the two.
“She is winning somewhat like an incumbent, in the sense that she is a current member of Congress and just won a very bruising statewide primary for the Republican nomination,” Hogan explained.
Hogan says over the next two-plus months, those 22% of respondents who are currently undecided will eventually make up their minds, and he says Letlow has the advantage.
“I think that, as the election gets closer, a lot of those people who may have second thoughts about her candidacy will gravitate back towards her side,” Hogan noted.