Political analysts almost unanimously believe that whoever wins the Republican Senate runoff between Julia Letlow and John Fleming will trounce the Democratic nominee. Democratic political strategist James Carville, however, says not so fast – while he says the Democratic nominee likely will not win, the margin will be a lot closer than what’s expected, possibly in the single digits. Carville says for starters, Black voters turned out in droves for the primary.
“Of every 100 people that voted in Louisiana last Saturday, 34 were Black. That’s enormous. By comparison, in the governor’s race in 2023, it was 25,” Carville noted.
Carville says Democrats had a very strong turnout in the primary, despite Democrats being greatly outspent.
“Republicans spent $28 million in their Senate Primary. The Democrats spent $440,000. It was 54-46, in terms of Republican-Democratic turnout. That’s stunning,” Carville said.
Carville says if the Democratic nominee can make it interesting, that could set the party up for success in the future – possibly as early as next year in the governor’s race, as Jeff Landry seeks re-election – assuming he survives the recall effort against him.
“Landry’s tepid polling numbers are a surprise to me. You would think a Republican governor, in Louisiana, a Trump down-the-line loyalist, would be really popular. He is not,” Carville said.