The early voting numbers released by the Secretary of State’s office paint a startling picture. Of the nearly quarter-million ballots cast in the seven days of early voting, including the absentee ballots which have been returned, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by nearly 4,500. JMC Analytics Pollster John Couvillon says three factors especially motivated Democrats to show up to the polls.
“You had the Supreme Court issuing its ruling on the Callais/redistricting case, you had the postponement to ‘date uncertain’ of U.S. House primaries, and then you had contentious redistricting hearings,” Couvillon said.
Couvillon says Democrats may also be motivated to vote against all five constitutional amendments, including the amendment to create a new school district in the newly incorporated city of St. George in East Baton Rouge Parish. Couvillon says with the heavy Black turnout statewide, especially in East Baton Rouge Parish, the amendment appears to be in jeopardy.
“That makes it that much tougher to pass, because one of the requirements to pass a constitutional amendment for a new school district is, the home parish has to pass it,” Couvillon explained.
While the early vote totals indicate the party affiliations of those who cast ballots, they do not indicate who they voted for – we won’t find out until Saturday night. Couvillon says regardless of the vote totals, we likely will not be in for a repeat of John Bel Edwards’ win in 2015 – the Republican who secures the U.S. Senate nomination will still likely win in November.
“Whoever the Democrat nominee is, I don’t see that individual having the conservative bona fides that John Bel Edwards did,” Couvillon noted.
Couvillon says the early voting totals represent a voter turnout of a little more than 25%. Of course, there’s still Election Day this Saturday to go.