Unlike in the primary election, where Democrats outnumbered Republicans in early voting, the numbers were flip-flopped in early voting for the runoffs. According to the Secretary of State’s Office, more than 77,000 Republicans cast early ballots, compared to just over 54,000 Democrats. John Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling says the Democratic turnout would have been even lower had it not been for three high-profile ballot measures in East Baton Rouge Parish.
“You’re talking about a respectable Democratic turnout, and traditionally that voter block or demographic favors tax renewals by an overwhelming margin. And East Baton Rouge Parish, of course, is a democratic-leaning parish,” Couvillon said.
Overall, more than 151,000 people cast early ballots – a decline of almost 40% from the May primaries. Couvillon says the calendar played a huge role in keeping those numbers down.
“Not only was it postponed with several races cancelled, and of course I’m referring to the U.S. House races; but having a primary and runoff in May and June, definitely that’s not what Louisiana voters are used to,” Couvillon noted.
Couvillon says despite the robust Democratic turnout in early voting in both the May primary and the runoff, he expects this to be the end of the road for Democrats.
“I could see them, perhaps, getting a couple points more than what they typically get in a general election, but I’m not expecting the Senate nor the five Republican-friendly House seat elections being competitive at all,” Couvillon said.
As for who that Republican nominee will be, Couvillon says with turnout expected to be low on election day, it’s going to come down to who among Julia Letlow and John Fleming can do a better job in getting out the vote.